Liberals Open 10-Point Lead as 62% Pick Them Over Conservatives to Handle Trump

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Canada’s confrontation with Donald Trump is becoming more than a foreign-policy challenge. It is increasingly reshaping the country’s domestic political landscape.

New Abacus Data polling puts the Liberals at 45% among committed voters, 10 points ahead of the Conservatives at 35%, as concern about Trump and his administration rises sharply. The most striking result appears among Canadians who rank Trump as one of the country’s three most important issues: 62% of that group believes the Liberals are best equipped to deal with him, compared with just 18% who choose the Conservatives. The movement comes immediately after another major escalation in the Canada-U.S. trade conflict, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney a political advantage on an issue that has suddenly returned near the top of the national agenda.

The Liberal Lead Has Widened From Seven Points to 10

The clearest headline from the latest Abacus Data polling is the change in federal vote intention. The Liberals stand at 45% among committed voters, compared with 35% for the Conservatives. The NDP sits well behind at 9%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 7%, the Greens at 2% and the People’s Party at 1%. Compared with Abacus Data’s August 12 reading, Liberal support has increased by three percentage points while Conservative support has remained unchanged. That has widened the Liberal advantage from seven points to 10 in roughly two weeks.

The gap does not disappear when turnout intentions are considered. Among respondents who say they are certain to vote, the Liberals receive 46% and the Conservatives 36% — again a 10-point difference. That matters because large polling leads can sometimes be softened when researchers isolate the people most likely to cast ballots. Here, both measurements tell essentially the same story. The Conservatives have maintained a substantial base of support, but the recent movement has been toward the governing Liberals rather than away from them.

Trump Has Suddenly Become Canada’s Second-Biggest Political Concern

The change in vote intention is occurring alongside a dramatic shift in what Canadians say they are worried about. The rising cost of living remains the dominant concern, selected by 62% of respondents as one of the three most important issues facing the country. But Donald Trump and his administration have surged into second place at 45%, an increase of seven percentage points since August 12. The economy follows at 39%, housing affordability at 30% and healthcare at 29%.

That seven-point increase is politically significant because the parties do not compete evenly when Trump dominates the conversation. Affordability, economic management and public services create a more complicated electoral battlefield. Trump creates a much more favourable one for the Liberals. The timing also matters. Canadians were responding while the bilateral trade dispute was escalating sharply, with negotiations breaking down and another round of American tariffs beginning. Instead of fading into the background after months of trade tensions, the U.S. president has moved back toward the centre of Canadian political attention.

The 62% Trump Advantage Is Much Bigger Than the Overall Liberal Lead

The most consequential number is not necessarily the 45%-to-35% national vote split. Among Canadians who identify Trump and his administration as one of their three most important issues, 62% say the Liberals are the party best able to handle him. Only 18% choose the Conservatives. That is a 44-point advantage on a question that has become increasingly important to a large portion of the electorate.

The same group also leans heavily Liberal when asked about voting. Among respondents who rank Trump as a top issue, 60% would vote Liberal while 21% would choose the Conservatives. The distinction is important: the 62% figure does not mean that 62% of all Canadians prefer the Liberals to deal with Trump. It applies specifically to people already identifying Trump as a major concern. Even with that qualification, the result explains why an increase in Trump’s political salience can reshape the national race. As more voters concentrate on Canada-U.S. relations, more political attention moves onto terrain where the Liberals currently possess an unusually large advantage.

The Poll Landed Immediately After the Trade Fight Escalated

The dates of the polling help explain why the Trump issue moved so quickly. Abacus Data questioned 2,022 Canadian adults between August 21 and August 26. On August 21, Carney announced that Canada was suspending trade negotiations with Washington after the government concluded that last-minute U.S. terms were unacceptable. The next day, new American Section 338 tariffs of 50% took effect on roughly $27.6 billion to $28 billion worth of Canadian products.

Ottawa subsequently announced that it would match the new measures dollar for dollar, with targeted counter-tariffs scheduled to apply to $27.6 billion worth of U.S. goods. The measures cover areas including steel and aluminum products, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics, dairy and electronics. Abacus Data said most interviews occurred after the breakdown in negotiations and implementation of the U.S. measures. That does not establish that the escalation caused the Liberal increase, but it places the change in public opinion squarely within an unusually intense period of Canada-U.S. confrontation.

Carney’s Personal Numbers Are Strengthening Alongside Liberal Support

The Liberals are not gaining solely on the ballot question. Approval of the Carney government reached 56% in the same polling, an increase of four percentage points from August 12. Disapproval fell two points to 29%, while another 15% neither approved nor disapproved. The government’s net approval rating consequently improved to plus 27.

Carney’s personal standing is stronger still relative to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Fifty-three per cent of respondents reported a positive impression of Carney and 28% a negative impression, producing a net score of plus 25. Poilievre was viewed positively by 35% and negatively by 46%, giving him a net impression of minus 11. The resulting 36-point difference between the two leaders is larger than the partisan vote gap itself. That suggests Carney is attracting positive assessments beyond the group already committed to voting Liberal. His net rating is positive in every region measured, including Alberta, despite the Conservatives maintaining a commanding electoral advantage there.

Quebec Has Become the Sharpest Example of the Trump Effect

Few places demonstrate the shift as clearly as Quebec. Two weeks earlier, Abacus Data had the Liberals at 37% in the province and the Bloc Québécois at 35%, leaving the governing party only narrowly ahead. The latest numbers put the Liberals at 45% and the Bloc at 34%, restoring an 11-point Liberal advantage. At the same time, concern about Trump has risen from 52% to 63% among Quebec respondents.

That makes Quebec the only region where Trump and his administration outrank the cost of living as the most frequently identified issue. Cost-of-living concerns stand at 53% in the province, 10 points below the Trump figure. Carney also records his strongest regional personal rating there, with a net impression of plus 46. No single poll proves that Trump explains the entire Liberal rebound in Quebec, but the simultaneous movement is difficult to ignore. For a governing party looking to protect or expand its Quebec coalition, the renewed confrontation with Washington is currently creating favourable political conditions.

The National Lead Still Conceals Major Regional and Generational Divides

A 10-point national advantage does not mean Canada has become politically uniform. The Liberals lead strongly in several vote-rich regions, reaching 49% in Ontario, 45% in Quebec and 58% in Atlantic Canada. They also register 45% in British Columbia compared with 37% for the Conservatives. The Conservative position remains formidable on the Prairies, however, with the party at 61% in Alberta and 48% across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Age produces another important divide. Among Canadians 60 and older, Liberal support reaches 56%, compared with 30% for the Conservatives. Among those aged 30 to 44, the result reverses: Conservatives lead 40% to 34%. Younger adults aged 18 to 29 are almost evenly divided, with the Liberals at 37% and Conservatives at 36%, while the NDP attracts 17%. Women favour the Liberals by 46% to 33%, whereas the two major parties are closer among men. The national result is therefore built from several very different regional and demographic political contests.

Conservatives Remain Highly Competitive When the Conversation Changes

The same polling that shows a huge Liberal advantage on Trump also reveals why the Conservatives cannot be written off. Among people who identify the economy as a priority, Liberal and Conservative vote intention is tied at 43%. Asked which party is best able to handle the economy, respondents in that group split 40% Liberal and 40% Conservative. On the rising cost of living, Conservatives hold a smaller 35%-to-31% issue-management advantage.

Their advantages become enormous on certain other files. Among people prioritizing immigration, 62% identify the Conservatives as best able to manage the issue and 15% choose the Liberals. On crime and public safety, the Conservatives lead 59% to 17%. These numbers expose the strategic importance of what dominates political discussion. A campaign concentrated on Trump and external pressure favours the Liberals. A campaign centred more heavily on immigration, crime or affordability could produce a much different environment. Even with the 10-point national gap, Conservative support itself has not fallen since the previous Abacus measurement.

The Economic Stakes Make Trump Hard to Treat as a Normal Foreign-Policy Issue

Canadians have practical reasons to pay unusual attention to Washington. Despite significant efforts to diversify trade, the United States remains by far Canada’s largest export market. Statistics Canada reported that 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025. That proportion had declined substantially from 75.9% in 2024, but it still illustrates the extraordinary economic integration between the two countries.

The relationship remained dominant this year. Canada exported approximately $77.5 billion worth of merchandise worldwide in June 2026, including about $53.9 billion to the United States — roughly seven dollars out of every $10 in goods exports that month. A new tariff therefore does not remain an abstract diplomatic dispute for long. It can work its way into factory decisions, commodity shipments, investment plans and employment expectations. Ottawa’s decision to answer the latest U.S. measures with $27.6 billion in targeted counter-tariffs reinforces the scale of the confrontation. For households and businesses exposed to cross-border commerce, presidential decisions in Washington can quickly become domestic economic questions.

The Liberal Advantage Is Strong, but Its Durability Is the Bigger Question

The latest Abacus result should be treated as a snapshot rather than a prediction of the next election. Its 2,022 respondents were drawn from online panels and the results were weighted to Canadian census characteristics including age, gender, education and region. Abacus says a probability-based sample of the same size would carry a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Different pollsters also use different methodologies and regularly produce different margins between the parties.

Still, the broader direction is not unique to this measurement. Other August polling had also placed the Liberals ahead: Léger reported 46% Liberal and 34% Conservative earlier in the month, while Nanos measurements showed a double-digit Liberal advantage as well. That is also an important caution against attributing the entire Liberal lead to the latest tariff escalation. Political research has repeatedly found that governments can receive temporary boosts during external crises, but those gains are not guaranteed to last. With cost of living still the country’s most commonly cited concern, the political equation could change again if economic consequences begin overshadowing the confrontation itself.

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