Most Canadians Now See China as a Major Threat, Poll Finds

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Canada’s renewed effort to improve relations with Beijing is colliding with a powerful current of public unease. Newly reported federal polling found that roughly two-thirds of Canadians consider China a significant threat to the country, placing it just behind Russia and well ahead of Iran, India and Pakistan.

The findings reveal a complicated national mood rather than a simple rejection of China. Canadians remain concerned about cyberattacks, foreign interference and political intimidation, yet many also support expanding trade beyond the United States. That tension presents Ottawa with an increasingly difficult assignment: pursue economic opportunities with the world’s second-largest economy without appearing to minimize the security risks identified by Canada’s own intelligence agencies.

The Headline Number—and What It Actually Measures

Research commissioned by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and conducted by EKOS Research Associates found that 66% of respondents considered China a significant threat to Canada. Russia ranked slightly higher at 70%, while Iran registered 34%, India 33% and Pakistan 21%. The same research found that 52% believed Canada had become more dangerous than it was five years earlier. Together, the numbers suggest that international instability is no longer viewed as something happening safely beyond Canada’s borders.

The wording matters. Respondents evaluated several countries individually rather than selecting only one enemy, meaning concern about China could exist alongside concern about Russia, India or Iran. The word “threat” can also cover many possibilities, from cyberespionage and election interference to economic coercion and military rivalry. It does not necessarily mean that two-thirds of Canadians expect an armed confrontation. The more defensible interpretation is that China is now widely regarded as a country capable of harming important Canadian interests, even among people who may still favour diplomatic contact or commercial cooperation.

Concern About China Has Been Building for Years

The latest result is not an isolated burst of anxiety. An earlier CSIS-commissioned study, conducted by EKOS in January 2025, asked Canadians to rank countries according to the threat they posed. China was placed first by 47% of respondents, compared with 27% who selected Russia. When first- and second-place rankings were combined, 74% put China in one of the top two positions. That study involved 2,045 respondents and was designed to track attitudes previously measured in 2018 and 2021.

Perceptions of the broader security environment were similarly unsettled. In the 2025 research, a majority said Canada had become more dangerous over the preceding five years. The latest 52% reading is therefore better understood as evidence of sustained apprehension than proof of a sudden surge. For many households, “national security” once evoked distant wars or airport screening. It now includes hacked municipal systems, stolen corporate research, manipulated social-media feeds and reports that people living in Canada have been pressured because of their political activities or family connections abroad.

Cybersecurity Makes a Distant Rivalry Feel Local

China’s cyber capabilities provide one of the clearest explanations for the public’s concern. The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security describes the People’s Republic of China as the most sophisticated and active state cyber threat facing Canada. Its assessment links Chinese state-backed operations to espionage, intellectual-property theft, malign influence and transnational repression. The agency says the scale, technical ability and ambition of the Chinese cyber program are unmatched among Canada’s state adversaries.

Those warnings are not limited to classified federal networks. In 2025, the Cyber Centre cautioned that provincial, territorial, Indigenous and municipal governments were continuing targets for Chinese cyberespionage. Local networks can contain residents’ personal information, infrastructure plans and records of discussions with other governments. A compromised router in a small public organization may sound less dramatic than a spy thriller, but it can provide access to communications and sensitive data. This is where an abstract geopolitical rivalry enters everyday life: through the systems used to deliver public services, protect research, operate businesses and store information about ordinary Canadians.

Foreign Interference Changed the National Conversation

Public concern also grew as Canadians learned more about attempts by foreign governments to influence domestic politics. The federal Foreign Interference Commission concluded in 2025 that China was the most active perpetrator of state-based interference targeting Canada’s democratic institutions. Its report described the use of diplomatic personnel, state agencies, online activity, community organizations and proxies to advance Beijing’s interests or suppress criticism of the Chinese Communist Party.

The commission nevertheless drew an important distinction between attempted interference and control of an election result. Justice Marie-Josée Hogue found no evidence that a foreign actor changed which party formed government in either the 2019 or 2021 federal election. A small number of individual ridings may have been affected, but the evidence did not permit a definitive conclusion. The broader harm was more difficult to dismiss. Interference can discourage political participation, place pressure on diaspora communities and weaken confidence in democratic institutions. For a Canadian resident worried that overseas relatives could face consequences for something said in Canada, the issue is personal rather than theoretical.

Trade Interests Pull Canadians in the Other Direction

Security concern has not eliminated the economic case for engaging China. China was Canada’s second-largest single-country merchandise trading partner in 2025, with two-way trade worth approximately $124.8 billion. Canadian exports accounted for $34.1 billion, while imports reached $90.6 billion. Farmers, seafood producers, resource companies, retailers and manufacturers all have a direct interest in whether goods continue moving between the two countries.

That commercial reality is reflected in public opinion. A June 2026 Research Co. poll found that 59% of Canadians believed the country should seriously consider expanding trade with China, while 28% disagreed. The finding emerged as Canada searched for markets beyond the United States during a period of tariff conflict and economic uncertainty. A Prairie farmer selling canola and an Ontario autoworker concerned about Chinese electric vehicles may therefore interpret the same relationship very differently. Canadians can regard China as a security risk while also believing that refusing to trade with it would be economically unrealistic. Those positions are uncomfortable, but they are not contradictory.

Carney’s China Reset Faces a Trust Problem

Prime Minister Mark Carney attempted to move the relationship onto more stable ground during a January 2026 visit to Beijing, the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Canada and China announced a strategic partnership built around economic cooperation, energy, public safety, multilateral issues and people-to-people ties. They also reached a preliminary trade arrangement that sharply reduced Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola seed and eased barriers affecting several other agricultural products.

Many Canadians initially responded favourably to the economic outcome. Angus Reid Institute polling conducted shortly after the trip found that 65% considered the agreement good, compared with 22% who viewed it negatively. The proportion favouring cautious engagement with China had risen to 51%, while only 23% wanted China treated primarily as an enemy or threat. Those results differ sharply from the newer CSIS figures because the questions measure different ideas. Supporting a negotiated trade arrangement does not require trusting Beijing, just as identifying a security threat does not require ending diplomatic relations. Carney’s challenge is to persuade Canadians that engagement will be controlled rather than naïve.

Different Polls Can Produce Very Different Threat Rankings

Another national poll illustrates why individual percentages require context. In research conducted for Bloomberg News between January 31 and February 4, 2026, Nanos asked respondents to select the single country posing the greatest immediate threat to Canadian security. The United States was chosen by 55%, compared with 15% for China and 14% for Russia. That result reflected an extraordinary period of Canada–U.S. tension and forced respondents to choose only one answer.

The CSIS research used a broader rating approach, allowing multiple countries to be considered significant threats. Under that format, China reached 66% and Russia 70%. Neither result automatically invalidates the other. One measures which country was uppermost in Canadians’ minds at a particular moment; the other measures whether each country crossed a threshold of concern. Polls are snapshots shaped by wording, timing and the choices offered. The underlying message is that Canadians no longer organize the world neatly into permanent friends and enemies. Even the United States can be viewed as an immediate danger while China remains a persistent security concern.

Ottawa Will Have to Practise Selective Engagement

The findings do not provide the government with a mandate for either unconditional cooperation or complete separation. A more realistic approach would distinguish ordinary commerce from sectors involving sensitive technology, personal data, critical minerals, telecommunications, defence applications and strategically important research. Investment screening, stronger cybersecurity and protections for people facing foreign intimidation can operate alongside agricultural exports, diplomacy and collaboration on global problems.

Ottawa must also communicate those boundaries clearly. Canadians are more likely to accept engagement when they can see which activities are permitted, which are restricted and what consequences will follow when rules are broken. The Foreign Interference Commission warned that public confidence itself can be damaged when information is incomplete or institutional responses appear uncertain. China will remain too economically important to ignore and too strategically powerful to treat casually. The poll’s most significant message is therefore not that Canadians demand isolation. It is that cooperation with Beijing now carries a heavy burden of proof—and that economic gains alone may not be enough to earn public trust.

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