Ford Calls 21% Approval Rating ‘Fake’ and Says He’d Still Win a Massive Majority

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Doug Ford has built a political career on treating bad news as something to challenge rather than quietly absorb. A new 21% approval rating—his lowest since becoming Ontario premier in 2018—produced exactly that response. Ford branded the figure “fake,” suggested it reflected the views of Liberal and NDP partisans, and insisted his Progressive Conservatives would still capture a “massive majority” if Ontarians voted today.

The clash exposes two very different pictures of provincial politics. One shows a premier facing intense frustration over affordability, health care, government spending and political judgment. The other shows a governing party that remains competitive because dissatisfaction with Ford has not fully consolidated behind a single rival. Both pictures can be true, but Ford’s sweeping rejection raises a basic question: what do the available numbers actually show?

The Number Ford Rejected

Ford did not respond to the 21% approval rating with caution or a promise to study what had gone wrong. He dismissed it outright. Speaking to reporters on June 16, the Ontario premier called the result a “fake poll” and accused its authors of polling the NDP and Liberal caucuses. He then pointed to Progressive Conservative research that, in his telling, showed the party would win another “massive majority” if an election were held immediately. The private numbers were not released with his remarks, leaving the public unable to compare their questions, sample or methodology with the published findings.

The Angus Reid Institute result was still difficult to ignore. It placed Ford’s approval at 21%, down from 31% in March and the lowest level recorded for him during his premiership. Only 4% of Ontario respondents said they strongly approved of his performance, while 17% moderately approved. On the other side, 27% moderately disapproved and 45% strongly disapproved. Another 6% were unsure. That is not merely a soft patch among undecided voters; it reflects a particularly intense level of dissatisfaction among nearly half of those questioned.

How the 21% Figure Was Produced

Ford’s description of the research does not match the methodology published by Angus Reid. The institute said its Ontario results came from an unweighted sample of 850 adults drawn from the Angus Reid Forum, an online panel. Participants were selected through a randomized process, and the final data were weighted so that age, gender, education, household income and regional representation aligned with census benchmarks. For comparison purposes, Angus Reid listed a margin of error of approximately plus or minus three percentage points for the Ontario sample.

That does not make any single public-opinion result infallible. Online panels depend on recruitment methods, weighting choices, question wording and the willingness of selected members to participate. A rating can also move as public attention shifts from one controversy to another. Still, those are methodological questions, not evidence that the sample consisted of opposition politicians. Angus Reid publicly disclosed how the respondents were drawn and how the data were adjusted. Ford’s internal research may use different assumptions or measure a different question, but without its underlying tables, it remains a political assertion rather than an independently testable rebuttal.

Approval Is Not the Same as Vote Intention

A premier can be unpopular and still lead the party that voters consider the least objectionable option. That distinction helps explain why Ford’s 21% approval rating does not automatically translate into a 21% vote share. In Leger research conducted from May 8 to 11, the Progressive Conservatives led decided voters with 39%, ahead of the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 17% and the Greens at 6%. Yet the same research found that only 33% viewed Ford favourably, while 59% viewed him unfavourably. Different questions were capturing different political calculations.

Leger also found a group that was dissatisfied with the government but not ready to replace it. Twenty-three per cent said they were satisfied and would re-elect the PCs, while another 20% were dissatisfied but still believed the PCs were better than the Liberals or NDP. Separate Liaison Strategies research days later produced a 37% tie between the PCs and Liberals, with the NDP at 20%. Together, the findings suggest a government in real trouble but not one facing certain defeat. Many Ontarians may dislike Ford’s performance while remaining unconvinced by the available alternatives.

Ford Has Turned Pluralities Into Majorities Before

Ford’s confidence is rooted in a record that his opponents cannot simply dismiss. In the February 2025 provincial election, the Progressive Conservatives won 2,159,060 votes, or just under 43% of ballots cast. That share translated into 80 of the legislature’s 124 seats—17 more than the 63 required for a majority. The Liberals received 30% of the vote but won 14 seats, while the NDP captured 18.5% and 27 seats. Ford became the first Ontario premier since Leslie Frost in 1959 to win three consecutive majority governments.

The result illustrates how Ontario’s first-past-the-post system rewards parties whose support is efficiently distributed across ridings. A party does not need majority support provincewide to secure a commanding majority at Queen’s Park; it needs to finish first in enough individual contests. Turnout was also only about 45%, meaning the government’s 80-seat mandate was built with the support of roughly one-fifth of registered voters. That does not weaken its legal legitimacy, but it shows why approval ratings, total vote share and seat totals can tell strikingly different stories about the same electorate.

The Jet Purchase Became a Symbol

The approval collapse arrived after a controversy that was easy for critics to explain in a single sentence: the province was buying a nearly $29-million private jet. Ontario had agreed to purchase a used Bombardier Challenger 650 for $28.9 million, presenting it as a tool for government travel. Once the plan became public in April, opposition parties questioned the cost and whether the aircraft was suited to reaching smaller northern communities. Within days, Ford reversed course and the plane was sold back for the same purchase price.

The reversal limited the direct loss on the aircraft, but it did not erase all of the expense or the political image. Documents subsequently reported by Global News identified roughly $191,000 in related aviation, management and legal costs. For households watching grocery bills, rent and mortgage payments climb, the episode offered a vivid contrast between government spending and daily financial strain. A single controversy rarely explains an approval decline by itself, and Angus Reid also pointed to health care, affordability and the province’s finances. Still, the jet became shorthand for a broader question: was the government focused on the same pressures as the people it governs?

Affordability Is the Deeper Problem

The private-jet dispute may have supplied the image, but cost-of-living anxiety supplied the fuel. Leger found that inflation and rising living costs were the most frequently named provincial issue, selected by 22% of respondents. Housing affordability followed at 10%, while trust and ethics, surgical wait times, health-care resources and access to family doctors also appeared among the leading concerns. More than half—56%—said Ontario was headed in the wrong direction. Those findings point to frustration that extends well beyond one procurement decision.

Liaison Strategies found an even sharper economic mood. Sixty-four per cent believed the province was on the wrong track, 63% said cost of living would be the primary factor in their vote, and only 6% felt government affordability measures had made a significant difference in their own lives. Asked which expense was causing the greatest difficulty, 38% chose groceries and 35% chose housing. Ford gained national visibility by confronting U.S. tariffs and presenting himself as a defender of Canadian interests. That message may still resonate, but provincial voters ultimately encounter government through emergency rooms, classrooms, housing costs and the price of an ordinary trip to the supermarket.

Why Another Huge Majority Is Possible—but Unproven

There is a mathematical path to the outcome Ford predicts. If the PCs hold support in the high 30s while the Liberals and NDP divide the opposition, they could again win many ridings without approaching 50% of the provincewide vote. Recent public research has placed the PCs between 37% and 39%, a range that has historically been competitive in Ontario. Regional concentration matters as much as the headline number: Abacus Data found the Liberals stronger in Toronto and the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, while the PCs retained an advantage in southwestern Ontario.

But “possible” is not the same as demonstrated. Liaison’s 37–37 tie would make many suburban and urban ridings highly competitive, and Leger’s five-point PC lead was far narrower than the party’s 13-point victory over the Liberals in 2025. The Liberals are also operating with an interim leader, meaning the opposition landscape could change before the next campaign. Ford may possess private riding-level research showing a more favourable map, but none accompanied his public claim. Until those methods and results are released, “massive majority” functions as a statement of confidence, not a verifiable forecast.

The Next Verdict Will Be Harder to Dismiss

Ford has already said he intends to seek a fourth mandate, making the dispute more than a one-day argument over research. The PCs will try to remind voters of three consecutive victories, a fragmented opposition and Ford’s ability to dominate attention during moments of crisis. The Liberals are scheduled to choose a permanent leader on November 21, 2026. Meanwhile, the NDP currently holds 26 seats, compared with 14 for the Liberals, giving it a considerably larger base from which to challenge the government. Both opposition parties will see the 21% figure as evidence that the premier’s political armour is weakening.

The fairest reading lies between Ford’s dismissal and predictions of imminent collapse. One approval rating, even a record low, is not an election result. It can change as issues fade, opponents stumble or governments alter course. At the same time, a finding showing 45% strongly disapprove should not be waved away simply because the governing party can still lead in vote intention. Public research currently depicts a premier who is personally unpopular, a PC brand that remains competitive and an electorate deeply uneasy about affordability and direction. Ford may win again. Calling the warning “fake,” however, does nothing to resolve the conditions that produced it.

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